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Overseas Stock Refunding Efforts Weakened &Nbsp; Exports Will Be Higher Before And After Low (1)

2010/7/3 10:55:00 56

Recently released data show that the economic outlook for Europe and the United States is facing great downside risks, especially the weakening of stock refunding, which will impact the growth of China's exports that just picked up.

In addition, the superposition effect of export policy may appear in the three quarter. In 2010, China's export growth will show "high before and after low".

overseas

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Weakened refunding efforts

In 2010 1~5, due to the need to replenish foreign markets, China's exports to Europe and the United States continued to recover strongly despite the sharp depreciation of the euro against the renminbi.

In May, China's exports to the EU and the US were 25 billion 861 million US dollars and 24 billion 107 million US dollars respectively, up 49.70% and 44.30% respectively over the same period last year.

But recent data show that Europe and the United States

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Growth and growth in orders are showing signs of slowing down.

The Commerce Department revised its GDP for the first time in second quarter last week, an increase of 2.7% in the adult rate, 0.5 percentage points lower than the first announced 3.2%.

Personal consumption has been revised down two times in a row, while the growth of enterprise inventories has been raised from initial $33 billion 900 million to $41 billion 200 million.

In May, US durable goods orders left for 5 consecutive months of growth, down 1.1%.

Combined with Philadelphia and New York 5~6 months of PMI new orders and shipments index fell sharply compared with 3~4 months, the stock index is expected to decline for two consecutive months, it can be said that the current U.S. stock replenishment effect has slowed sharply.

In Europe, Germany's PMI index in June continued to decline slightly compared with May. The ZEW (European Economic Research Center) economic climate index was 28.7, far below the level of the same period in 2009. In May, consumption growth in France slowed down by only 0.7%, and June PMI index was basically flat with May, and manufacturing industry declined slightly.

The total euro area PMI in June was 55.6, slightly lower than that in May.

Li Huan, an analyst with Jianghai securities, believes that the leading indicators reflect the impact of debt problems on the real economy to a certain extent. In the second half of the year, endogenous growth in Europe has weakened, and exports are the main concern.