Foreign Trade Is Expected To Grow Moderately This Year.

"The foreign trade situation in January is expected, and this year's foreign trade situation is hard to say." 15, deputy director and guidance commentator of international market research department, Ministry of Commerce, international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute Bai Ming Speaking frankly to reporters.

In the first two days, the General Administration of Customs announced the data of foreign trade in January this year: the total value of imports and exports was US $382 billion 400 million, up 10.3% over the same period last year. This "open door" has accelerated by 2.7 percentage points over the whole year. It was 4.1 percentage points faster than last December, exceeding the expectations of most market participants, and some people are optimistic about the trend of foreign trade this year.

However, in the opinion of Bai Ming and other experts, there are many contingency factors in the growth of foreign trade in January. This year, the overall situation of foreign trade has not been much improved. In some respects, it is even more severe. Too optimistic views are undesirable. Single month data are not trend.

Customs statistics show that in January, China's imports and exports with its major trading partners grew well. Among them, the total value of bilateral trade between China and Europe has increased by 14.6%, the bilateral trade value of China and the United States has increased by 8.8%, and the bilateral trade value of ASEAN has increased by 11.3%. It is worth noting that the bilateral trade volume between China and Japan has shifted from last year's year-on-year decline to year-on-year growth in 1, with a total trade value of 170 billion 50 million yuan and an increase of 7.8%.

Analysts believe that in the context of the overall recovery of developed economies as a whole, China will be in the future. Exit There is still room for improvement.

"Objectively speaking, the international market has indeed been warmer, and to some extent, it has stimulated China's exports in January, but contingency factors should not be overlooked." Bai Ming believes that the trade data in January are obviously affected by the Spring Festival factor. There is "distortion" element and can not represent the trend of the whole year. Because during the Spring Festival in February, a considerable part of the business volume of the enterprise was advanced to January. From past years, import and export data in February will be significantly reduced.

"Single month data are often more disturbed by Holiday factors, so the single month data is not trend." Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the National Information Center, agrees with Bai Ming.

Bai Ming said that compared with the 27.04% increase in imports and exports in January last year, the growth rate of import and export in January this year is not high, so it is not worth complacent. Moreover, in January, China's RMB appreciation rose to 3%. If the factor is removed, the actual growth rate of foreign trade will be even lower. In fact, according to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the total value of China's imports and exports in January this year was 2 trillion and 340 billion yuan, up 7.3% from the same period last year. High growth rate is difficult to sustain.

"From multiple factors, the foundation of China's foreign trade growth this year is not sustainable." Bai Ming analysis, first of all, the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the implementation of orders will return to normal. Secondly, the recovery process of the developed economies has been repeated many times, especially the trade relationship with Japan is more uncertain, which has a certain inhibition on the demand of our products. In addition, the continued reduction of the size of the QE by the Federal Reserve will lead to continued capital outflow of emerging economies, devaluation pressure on emerging market currencies, and a decline in internal purchasing power, which also has a negative effect on China's exports.

At the same time, the rapid rise of emerging markets is rapidly eroding China's market share. With the re industrialization of the United States, its manufacturing industry will also have more opportunities to suppress China's labor force by technological superiority. Cost advantage 。

From the domestic perspective, the situation is also not optimistic. On the one hand, due to the sharp rise in production costs and labor costs, especially the continued appreciation of the renminbi, the profit margins of export enterprises have been greatly reduced. On the other hand, because the export tax rebate rate has reached the high level of the stage and the restrictions of international trade rules, the state can not have too much and greater support policy for foreign trade. Under internal and external difficulties, enterprises have become increasingly unbearable.

A recent survey by the Ministry of Commerce showed that the proportion of enterprises with external demand being weak and affecting exports accounted for 77.9%, accounting for 54% of the impact of rising costs, accounting for 28.6% of the impact of increased competition in the international market. According to Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, the foreign trade situation in 2014 is still very grim and complicated, and the expected growth of foreign trade for the whole year is unlikely to be higher than that of last year's 7.6% level.

Zhou Jingtong, senior researcher at Bank of China International Finance Research Institute, estimated that it would be more difficult to maintain 10% import and export growth throughout the year. Therefore, the prediction of maintaining an annual export growth of 8% and an increase of 7.5% in imports remained unchanged.

"It is expected that this year's foreign trade growth will match the overall macroeconomic growth, but there is no need to be too pessimistic," Mr Bai said. "Now cross-border e-commerce is developing rapidly, which can boost the export growth of SMEs. In addition, new modes of trade are also emerging. Such as Yiwu's pilot market export trade mode, assembling small scattered commodities into large commodities and packing together, centralized declaration and centralized inspection, improving the efficiency of trade and reducing transaction costs, this new way can also play a certain role. On the whole, both negative and positive factors offset each other. This year's foreign trade may be a relatively mild growth. "