Commentary: We Should Treat The Depreciation Of RMB Exchange Rate Rationally.

People always exist. Inertial thinking Once this mode of thinking is formed, it is difficult to adapt to the new changes. Even if such changes are sometimes beneficial to them, it is difficult to accept them. In recent years, there have been two outstanding events in the financial sector. One is the QE problem in the US, and the other is the exchange rate of the renminbi. In the past few years, the United States launched the grand plan of US dollar quantitative easing for its own interests. It was attacked by the whole world and thought it was too irresponsible and allowed its dollar to overflow. The result was that the US dollar in the foreign exchange market did not depreciate, and when the US announced that it would end its stupidity and reduce its QE quota last year, it caused more global worries. It seems that the reduction of the US dollar quota would cause more problems. Recent Renminbi exchange rate The issue also raises concerns, which in fact belong to the same nature.

　　 RMB Since 2006, the exchange rate has broken the fixed value of the previous 15 years and was forced to enter the appreciation stage. The main variety of US dollar fell from the initial 8.27 to the lowest 6.0930 (middle price) of January 14th this year, falling 26.32%, followed by a continuous rebound trend, and the intermediate price rebounded to 6.15 at 2.5 months, with a magnitude of 0.98%. As a result, the argument that RMB will enter the cycle of depreciation is endless. The major media and the industry are full of worries. Many investors, housewives and overseas students are consulting the author through various channels. It is hard for me to understand this. It seems that everyone has shown the characteristics of currency blindness on exchange rate issues, complicating the problem that should not be a problem. Some media have even talked about this topic so as to attract eyeballs and cause more people's uneasiness. So how do we look at the issue of RMB exchange rate?

In fact, we all know that for a country's economic development, especially in order to promote the international competitiveness of its exports, the appropriate depreciation of the country's currency is the result of everyone's hope. In fact, China's economic development is guaranteed by the long-term low level of RMB exchange rate, and then forced by European and American pressure to have a proper appreciation. In other words, the appreciation of the renminbi is not what we want, because the appreciation will cause the domestic micro profit products to lose competitiveness completely, resulting in a large number of individual enterprises bankrupt. It has been estimated that every one percentage point reduction of the US dollar to the RMB exchange rate will cause hundreds of thousands of enterprises to go bankrupt in China, and in the 7 years of RMB appreciation, many enterprises in the coastal areas have been transformed or closed down. Therefore, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate over the past 7 years and its depreciation will be a good thing for domestic economic development. Why should we worry about it?

If we allow the RMB exchange rate to operate unilaterally, can we make people predict the future outcome in a definite way? Is it also called the financial market? It is also called the financial market. It is necessary to conduct official intervention to end the predictable trend of the future and allow the RMB exchange rate to fluctuate within a range so as to force the speculation of YISHION to hoard domestic funds to leave the field so as not to cause the false prosperity of the currency. Therefore, the rebound of the US dollar against the unilateral decline of the exchange rate of the people's currency is entirely necessary and necessary. Moreover, a continuous decline of 26% in technology and a little rebound is not a normal phenomenon. Moreover, the recent rebound in the intermediate price is less than 1%. Is it necessary to make such a fuss? On the other hand, the trend of any market in the foreign exchange market should be a trend of fluctuation rather than a unilateral trend.

I have talked about the trend of RMB exchange rate in the coming years in micro-blog. From the next 3-5 years, the RMB exchange rate will continue to fall before the RMB enters the convertibility, and the probability of breaking 5 is still high. Of course, the issue of exchange rate is a double-edged sword. The rise and fall will bring many advantages and disadvantages, all of which depend on the flow of capital and the attractiveness of the region. Moreover, the mature foreign exchange market in the foreign exchange market can usually maintain about 30% of the year's volatility, which is far higher than the change of the RMB exchange rate. We must learn how to correctly view the exchange rate issue and gradually adapt to many new problems caused by exchange rate changes.

Although the trend of stock index futures is difficult for many investors, the most difficult period of technology is over. Under the atmosphere of long disappearing, I firmly believe that the 2100 points and the following jokes have nothing to do with the jokes of life. The overall upward trend of the index has already been formed. It is only because of the suppression of many EMA on the Japanese K-line that the process will be very difficult.