It'S Not Wise To Abuse China'S Stock Market

Since the reform and opening up, because China's cultural construction and economic theory construction have not kept up with the pace of economic and social development, there have been shortcomings in economic theory, leading experts and scholars to not fully explain "China's development", "China's model" and "China's characteristics".

Recently, China's stock market has been on the rise. Some so-called experts, unable to explain why the stock market rose sharply, accused it of being a "casino". Moreover, Yan must say how the US stock market is. This practice is divorced from the reality of China's economy and the stock market, and also does not respect the broad market participants. It is the most irrational and should be corrected.

In fact, it is possible to attract gamblers in all fields around the world; As far as the stock market is concerned, there are gamblers in the stock markets of the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore. However, we can't say that a place where gamblers visit is a casino. Because of some problems, it is very unkind to kill the whole.

In the history of the development of China's stock market, the so-called experts who "speak hard" about it have not just appeared, and there are more than one. The earliest initiator was scholar Wu Jinglian, who first put forward the "casino theory"; The scholar Xu Xiaonian went further and put forward the theory of "pushing down and starting again"; As an "independent economist", Xie Guozhong put forward "meat grinder theory" and "value destruction theory"; Hu Shuli, a media man, shouted "no rescue, no rescue, no rescue" when the stock market plummeted in 2008. These remarks that belittle and belittle the Chinese stock market have been widely reported.

At the end of July 2014, after a seven-year decline, China's stock market reversed in the context of the new normal of the economy and the overall deepening of reform, and walked out of a bull market. This is something to be congratulated on. However, some so-called "experts" who do not understand the reality of the stock market have again mentioned the casino theory, believing that the large and overall rise is due to the "Chinese people have gambling". When the Shanghai Composite Index reaches more than 3500 points, speculation is rife and bubbles are everywhere. An old man who used to be the vice chairman of the All China Federation of Industry and Commerce shouted something like "China's stock market is crooked when it comes out of my mother's belly" on such a serious occasion as the Boao Forum; A professor who teaches in a university in central China calls "China's stock market is a casino" almost every day; A financial writer who seems to be familiar with the US stock market has repeatedly said that the Chinese stock market is a "legitimate big casino".

However, the above statement of negating everything is not tenable. Although China's stock market has accumulated some bubbles after rising for half a year, it needs to be digested; It is good to remind investors of risks at this moment. However, this does not mean that China's stock market is run as a casino, nor does it mean that all the people involved are gamblers. Risk experts should not think that "all people are stupid"; The stock market bubble is also hierarchical and structured. Not every stock is immersed in the sea of bubbles. In addition, it is a normal phenomenon that the market has a structural bubble. For this reason, the overall abuse and insult of the Chinese stock market and various types of investors in China goes beyond the scope of criticism, which is not kind and rational.

The author has repeatedly pointed out that China's stock market is not only a barometer of economic data, but also a barometer of the reform process and a "double barometer". The bull market launched in July 2014 is a positive reflection of comprehensively deepening reform. All 190 reform measures will be issued with construction drawings in 2015. These major changes that stimulate market vitality, standardize administrative power, and restructure production relations will have a profound and real impact on China's economic and social development. At a time when the stock market is booming, China CSRC Ordering companies with major violations to delist, conducting normal inspections on listed companies and securities institutions, implementing balanced listing of new companies, and steadily promoting the reform of the registration system are measures to protect the market, not the opposite. As a barometer of the reform process, the stock market will continue to improve.

The differences between the stock markets of China and the United States at least include the following three aspects: 1. The background of reform is different: the economic and social system of the United States does not need significant reform (at least many people think so), and they have not carried out any major reform; However, China needs to carry out substantial reform and is in the process of doing so. 2. Different international status: China is squeezed by the inherent international order; The United States is the main beneficiary of the global order. The political power and capital power of the United States can only carve up the resources of countries around the world. 3. The stock market stage is different: many companies in the main board market of the United States are too large to expand, and their profits come from the world. After they have made large profits, there is little room to expand reproduction. What should they do without dividends? In contrast, most listed companies in China are much smaller than those in the United States, and their profit sources are limited to China. If it is too early a bonus How to expand? 4. The economic drivers are different: the United States is a high-tech leader, while China is a technology catch-up country.

It can be seen that China and the United States equity market In different stages, hard comparison is not allowed. If the various indicators of the Chinese stock market are rigidly set according to the American formula, the Chinese stock market may never rise, and even in another 30 years there will be no so-called bull market. China's stock market reflects not only the economic growth, but also the reform process and strength. This bull market is a "reform bull" with sufficient momentum. We should alert and resolve risks; But more importantly, we should govern the city according to law, and manage risks by governing the city according to law.

Since the reform and opening up, because China's cultural construction and economic theory construction have not kept up with the pace of economic and social development, there have been shortcomings in economic theory, leading experts and scholars to not fully explain "China's development", "China's model" and "China's characteristics". Some experts think that if they learn to "tell American logic" and master the "economics of developing countries first", they can eat all the food in the world; I think that these "theories" can explain and solve everything about China's development. They habitually compare the US stock market with the Chinese stock market, and then draw the "conclusion" that China is wrong, not able, and not able. They look up to the United States all day long, and are unwilling or afraid to look at the United States from a "flat" perspective. It is almost to the point of "I love every tree and grass in America" and "I want to copy every tree and grass in America".

The author believes that this kind of mentality and action is not only lazy brain, lazy learning, lazy politics, but also self abasement, self humiliation, and self killing, which will ultimately lead to the misunderstanding of the country and the people, and the people and themselves. If we really follow the thinking of individual "experts", there is no need for China to engage in the Belt and Road Initiative or the Asian Investment Bank.

What needs to be vigilant is that the discriminatory "theory" and the "theory" divorced from reality will suppress the vitality of the development of China's stock market, leading to a long-term bear market, which will ultimately damage the interests of ordinary investors and the national development interests. Of course there are gamblers in the stock market, and there will always be. Both Chinese and American stock markets have risks and gamblers, but gamblers bet differently. In the long run, no matter which country's stock market, it is often rational to win, rather than gambling to win. In the current Chinese stock market, rational and stable investors are more likely to win.