Oman Bay Explosion Oil Prices Rebound Polyester Market Will Improve?

Bloomberg quoted the United States Fifth Fleet news, Beijing time 13 noon afternoon, the explosion of the Gulf of Oman, two oil tankers caught fire, after the oil price rebound from nearly 5 months low, once rose nearly 4.5%.

The tanker manager said in a statement that the Kokuka Courageous tanker was shipped from Saudi Arabia to Singapore, carrying methanol on the ship "damaged by a suspected attack".

The other is the Front Altair, which marks the Marshall Islands.

In the morning of 13 hours in Beijing, US government data showed that crude oil inventories increased by 2 million 200 thousand barrels last week, resulting in a 4% drop in oil prices.

A spokesman for the US Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain told The Associated Press that his command was "known to know" the incident and was looking for further details.

CNBC reported that the British maritime trade action organization, a branch of the Royal Navy, said it was investigating the events in the Gulf near Iran coastline.

When tensions between Iran and the United States are intensifying, the group urges the parties to "be extremely cautious".

Reuters reported that the area near the Strait of Hormuz is an important strategic waterway. 1/5 of the world's oil consumption comes from the Middle East oil producing countries.

Reporters noted that before the attack in Oman Bay, oil tankers near the Persian Gulf also suffered attacks last month, which increased the possibility of the interruption of crude oil flow.

This may trigger a rebound in prices after the US's expanding inventories and Global trade disputes erase most of this year's oil price increase.

On Wednesday, the 14 day relative strength of WTI crude fell back to the oversold zone, indicating that the recent decline may have gone too far.

After the "two day tour", how can the oil price rise again?

As we all know, the chemical fiber industry is closely related to oil.

More than 90% of the products in the chemical fiber industry are based on petroleum raw materials. The raw materials of polyester, nylon, acrylic and polypropylene in the industrial chain all come from petroleum, and the demand for oil increases year by year.

Therefore, the impact of crude oil prices on the prices of naphtha, PX, PTA and other products have a linkage effect, the price of downstream polyester products is expected to be further pulled up.

The recent performance of the polyester industry chain has been quite undulating.

Since 9 days, up to PX, PTA, down to polyester chips and polyester filament, there are signs of rising to varying degrees.

However, this wave of market returns to the original weakness on the 11 day, and the volume and price rise of products is gradually shrinking. Especially after entering this Wednesday, the stalemate market has once again become the main keynote of the whole polyester industry chain.

The price is in a dilemma, and the market sideways oscillation not only illustrates the stalemate between the two sides of the market, but also reflects the confusion of the industry from the side.

As the source of the whole polyester industry chain, the impact of market sentiment can not be underestimated.

Although the previous market fell for a long time, polyester appeared to be very humbled, but the recent rise in crude oil prices has greatly boosted the commodity market.

The rise in production and sales since 9 days depends on the rise of PX after the rise of crude oil.

The supply of the market will be increased, and the improvement in the market for orders and start-up rates will also be significantly boosted.

The rapid development of all these functions lies in the fact that crude oil is still an important determinant of polyester industry chain.

Therefore, it is foreseeable that the news of oil price rise will stimulate the recovery of raw polyester raw materials. Since June, the situation of polyester filament has become more vulnerable, but fortunately, at present, the stock of polyester is at a low level. Based on this, short term or again bring about the upgrading of polyester price.

But in the long run, the recent decline in polyester prices and production and marketing is the demand for the return to fundamentals under the interlacing of factors.

Judging from the recent textile market pactions, since mid April the market has obviously weakened, weaving manufacturers generally increased inventory.

At present, the inventories of high weaving factories are close to 2 months, and the low ones are about 35 days.

This makes the larger part of the liquidity of the weaving factory in stock, and near the node in the off-season. Although the raw material inventory of the weaving factory is still in the low position, at present, it is difficult for manufacturers to continuously invest their cash into raw materials.

Therefore, it is still the old saying: whether the market is OK or not, it is still necessary to see whether the downstream market is matched or not.

On the whole, the political turmoil in the global economy has further increased the worries of the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate.

At the same time, the direction of polyester industry chain, both sides of the supply and demand mentality is very delicate, it is prudent to say that it is prudent.

Last year, polyester raw materials generally favored, but the late "waist cut" market is still vivid, no way to compare and link.

We will not go deep into whether crude oil will continue to rise. Only if crude oil prices rebounded sharply, the whole polyester market will be improved to a certain extent. This optimism will continue to spread in the short run.

And can the weaving Market dragged by orders be driven by the upstream price increase?

Please wait and see.

(source: Daily Economic News)