At The End Of Autumn, Can The Last Bus Price Increase PTA Continue?

At the end of the autumn, PTA is coming back to the top. The cold winter will arrive. Can the last price increase continue?

After the end of the National Day holiday, the cost of raw materials is supported, the impact of PTA device maintenance, the price rebounded, and the base change from 10 yuan to 10 yuan / ton. Can PTA stay strong under the changeable market?

Raw material PX price is strong support. At present, PX production enterprises in China are losing weight and overhauling equipment, and naphtha prices are rising continuously, and PTA's load at 89.96% highs before the National Day holiday, and the demand is good, resulting in low PX inventory and tight supply of goods. Therefore, PX's short-term prices are more resistant. As of October 11th, naphtha was priced at $541 / ton, and the PX price was $813 / ton.

surface One The near future PX List of equipment maintenance status

Unit: 10000 tons

Source: lung Chung

PTA device maintenance release, the lowest operating rate dropped to 80.07%.

After returning to the market after the holiday, PTA ushered in Hengli petrochemical 1# and 2# devices will continue to enter the maintenance of the news. In October 8th, 1#220 million tons of equipment has entered the parking, for a period of 12 days of maintenance, at the same time, after the device is overhauled, the 2# line will also enter the pace of maintenance. After the news came out, the PTA market has a rising trend, but the intensity is moderate. Every other day, Peng Wei petrochemical and Ya Dong Petrochemical also showed a short stop phenomenon. At the same time, the 2 million 250 thousand ton equipment of Yanda was also reduced because of the raw material problem. In just 4 days, PTA dropped to 89.96% from the highest level of 89.96% before the holiday. With the restart of Peng Wei petrochemical, PTA load increased to 81.68% as of October 12th.

surface Two Recent and future markets PTA Unit maintenance summary

Unit: 10000 tons

Source: lung Chung

In the next 11-12 months, PTA still has many sets of repair and maintenance expectations, but the new plan for the commissioning of 2 million 200 thousand tons of new equipment is still in operation, and the 4 phase of Hengli petrochemical and the new Sino Thai plant in Xinjiang will also be put into operation in December. Therefore, in the late PTA productivity growth background, the industry overcapacity phenomenon will become more obvious.

Polyester stored for 3 days during the national day, the price reduction has little effect.

During the national day, polyester enterprises had different levels of storage, averaging 3 days or so. Now POY stocks are mostly around 7-12 days; FDY stocks are mostly near 10-15 days; DTY stocks are mostly near 20-25 days. When the inventory moves upward, polyester enterprises choose more price promotions to relieve pressure, but the overall effect is very small. Along with the narrow upward movement of PTA prices, some enterprises such as polyester staple fiber and polyester chip are losing profits, and there are reports of production reduction or overhaul in the market.

From the above point of view, in the short term of the support of raw material costs and the stable operation of polyester, the price of PTA is on the warmer trend. It is expected that the price of PTA will rise steadily before the end of October. But in the long run, PTA is still showing an empty stance in the concentrated release of new capacity.