U.S. First Tier Dow Ended Its "Three Consecutive Falls" And The NASDAQ Closed 0.36% Lower, With U.S. Retail Sales Data In September Far Exceeding Expectations

On October 16, US Eastern time, supported by strong retail sales data, the Dow rose more than 110 points, ending the "three consecutive losses", but the NASDAQ still closed down. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.39% to 28606.31, the Nasdaq composite fell 0.36% to 11671.56, and the standard & Poor's 500 index rose 0.01% to 3483.81.

Major European stock indexes rose collectively. The FTSE 100 rose 1.49% in the UK, 1.26% in the eurostoxx 600, 1.62% in Germany, 2.04% in France and 1.70% in Italy.

Hot tech stocks fell. Apple closed 1.4% lower, Amazon down 1.98%, Google parent company alphabet up 0.79%, Netflix down 2.06%, Facebook down 0.3%, Microsoft was flat with the previous session.

Popular Chinese stocks generally rose. Alibaba closed up 2.62%, Sohu 1.62%, Jingdong 1.58%, iqiyi 2.53%, baidu 0.25%, Netease 0.22%, pinduoduo 1.49%, BiliBili (station B) up 0.14%.

US retail sales in September far exceeded expectations

U.S. retail sales rose 1.9% month on month in September, much higher than the expected 0.8% and 0.6% of the previous value, according to data released by the US Department of Commerce.

Specifically, clothing and accessories led the rise, up 11% month on month; sporting goods, music and books rose 5.7%; electronics and household appliances were the only major industries with negative growth, down 1.6% month on month; automobile sales were strong, with a month on month growth of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. Excluding growth in the automotive, gasoline, building materials and food service industries, retail sales also rose 1.4% month on month in September. This series of data shows that the biggest driving force of the US economy is still robust.

The analysis points out that the strong rebound in retail sales is due to the new coronavirus pandemic boosting the demand of Americans to supplement household consumer goods, such as cars, furniture and electronic products. In addition, the U.S. fiscal stimulus also boosted retail sales, making the U.S. economy expected to record its fastest growth in the third quarter. GDP growth is expected to grow at an annualized rate of 35.2% in the third quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed's gdpnow tracking data.

However, the rescue money from the government is actually over. At present, the two parties in the U.S. Congress are negotiating on a new round of fiscal stimulus plan, and it is still unclear when an agreement can be reached.

In addition to this fourth quarter, there are concerns that the number of new cases is likely to continue to increase as the economy slows down in the fourth quarter. The 2020 holiday shopping season will be the key to U.S. economic growth momentum.

"The problem is the virus," says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon macroeconomics. In more populous states, cases are only growing at a moderate rate, but we are not sure that this will continue, and the message from those states where cases have risen to very high levels is that economic activity will soon be affected. "

Since the spring, shepherson has been able to provide a strong source of savings for consumers since the spring.

Savings have been at all-time highs for months as consumers cut back on panic over the new crown. According to statistics, the personal savings rate peaked at 33.6% in April and remained at 14.1% in August, the highest level since June 1975.

Quincy krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial, said the U.S. economy continues to show strong momentum and is recovering for those who still have jobs.

Krosby added: "the question is whether we will continue to see an unexpected increase in retail sales if initial jobless claims continue to increase. " 

According to data released by the US labor department on the 15th, 898000 people applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, up 53000 on a month on month basis, higher than the previous market expectation of 830000, the highest increase since July.

Oil prices and gold prices fell

International oil prices fell on the 16th. WTI crude oil futures for November delivery fell 0.20% to $40.88/barrel. London Brent crude for December delivery fell 0.53% to $42.93/barrel.

International gold prices fell on the 16th. COMEX gold futures for December delivery fell 0.13% to $1906.4 an ounce.