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Increase In Inventories And Decline In Imports Weigh On Cotton Prices In China

2014/7/2 15:15:00 32

according to the July 1st news, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said on Tuesday that high cotton stocks outside China and high cotton imports in China will bring downward pressure on international cotton prices in 2014/15. 
 in addition, global cotton output in may exceed consumption, but the surplus may be lower than the previous four years. 
 > therefore, the inventory of a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > is expected to increase by 6% to 21 million 400 thousand tons at the end of the year, and the inventory utilization ratio is 89%, in other words, the cotton inventory is enough to meet the consumer demand in the near 11 months. This will be the fifth consecutive year-end increase in inventories after falling by 27% in 2009/10. 
 China is expected to hold nearly 60% of global inventories, mostly in the government's a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > reserves < /a >. At the end of 6, the Secretariat estimated that the Chinese government would still hold 11 million 700 thousand tons of cotton. 
 although China's a href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > demand < /a > is expected to grow in the next year, but the preference for high quality cotton is strong, so the government is unlikely to reduce its reserves rapidly without cutting prices substantially. 
 at the end of 2013/14, China's cotton holdings were estimated at 11 million 500 thousand tons, an increase of 19% over the 2012/13 year, and cotton stocks in 2014/15 are expected to increase further. 
 besides, at the end of this year, the inventory of cotton outside China is expected to increase by 7% to 8 million 700 thousand tons at the end of this year. The end of 2014/15 is expected to reach 9 million 700 thousand tons. 
Global cotton production is expected to decline by 2% to 25 million 300 thousand tons in the year P < 2014/15, and China's cotton production may only reach 6 million tons due to the decline of cotton planting area in China. 
 cotton production in other countries of the world is expected to increase by 1% to 19 million 300 thousand tons. In 2013/14, cotton production in India was estimated at a record high of 6 million 500 thousand tons, encouraging farmers to sow more cotton in the 2014/15 year because of higher yields and better prices. 
 if the yield per unit area is similar to that of the previous three years, the cotton output in India will reach 6 million 300 thousand tons in 2014/15, but the final output will be highly dependent on the time of monsoon rainfall. 
Rainfall has already been urgently needed in the P southwestern region, which may help reduce the abandonment rate and make the harvest area higher than the previous year. In 2014/15, cotton production in the United States is expected to increase by 14% to 3 million 200 thousand tons. 
Less than 1% to 23 million 400 thousand tons of global cotton consumption in the year P > 2013/14, but 2014/15 is expected to increase by 3% to 24 million 100 thousand tons. 
 high cotton prices in China, restrictions on imports, financing difficulties and weak demand for cotton yarn have reduced many cotton factories in China in the previous year. 
 however, with the end of China's policy of purchasing and storage, many cotton mills are expected to lower prices later this year, which has been reflected in the futures market. China's cotton consumption is slightly improved and will reach 7 million 900 thousand tons in 2014/15. 
 India cotton consumption grew strongly in 2013/14, increasing 5% to 5 million 100 thousand tons. Consumption in 2014/15 is expected to increase by 6% to 5 million 400 thousand tons again. 
The P > Global trade volume is expected to decline by 8% to 8 million 100 thousand tons, as China's imports will fall from 3 million tons to 2 million 200 thousand tons. Cotton imports in other countries around the world are expected to increase by 35% to 5 million 900 thousand tons. 
 Southeast Asian imports have increased with the increase in consumption in the region, where cotton production is very small. 
 the Secretariat expects that the amount of cotton imports in Bangladesh will increase by 2% to nearly 900000 tons in 2014/15 and Vietnam's cotton imports will increase by 9% to nearly 700000 tons.